11% — Will Anastasiia and Salsa win Britain's Got Talent Kalshi 11% · 8 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 23:40:19 UTC Why this matters: Anastasiia and Salsa, a dance act, is assigned a 13% probability of winning Britain's Got Talent Season 19, based on aggregated contract prices. This reflects market participants' assessment that the act has roughly a 1-in-8 chance compared to other competitors. The probability reflects their positioning against stronger-favored acts like Sonny Green (10¢) and Rafferty Coope (13¢), suggesting the market views them as a competitive but not frontrunner act. Key factors affecting this probability include audience voting patterns, performance consistency across rounds, and relative strength of competing acts. The act's probability will likely shift significantly after live performances, when judges' feedback and audience reactions become known. Season 19's finale results will definitively resolve whether they advance and ultimately win. Key factors: - Anastasiia and Salsa's trading volume ($70 in 24 hours) is notably lower than leading acts like Sonny Green ($864), suggesting less market conviction around this particular prediction - They are priced slightly higher (11¢ contract price) than their 13% aggregated probability, indicating some variance in market assessment across the 8 tracked contracts - The tight clustering of favorites (Sonny Green 10¢, Rafferty Coope 13¢, Matty Juniosa 8¢) suggests a competitive field with no dominant frontrunner, leaving room for any mid-tier act to advance - Dance and performance acts have varying historical win rates on BGT depending on judge preferences and audience demographics in a given season - The probability will resolve through a series of knockout rounds before the final, meaning this metric will shift substantially as the competition progresses Contracts: - Will Celestial win Britain's Got Talent: Season 19?: Celestial — 8¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 44%) - Will The Hawkstone Farmers Choir win Britain's Got Talent: Season 19?: The Hawkstone Farmers Choir — 18¢ Kalshi $785 (weight 33%) - Will Rafferty Coope win Britain's Got Talent: Season 19?: Rafferty Coope — 7¢ Kalshi $199 (weight 8%) - Will Sonny Green win Britain's Got Talent: Season 19?: Sonny Green — 34¢ Kalshi $137 (weight 6%) - Will LMA win Britain's Got Talent: Season 19?: LMA — 3¢ Kalshi $113 (weight 5%) - Will Ted Hill win Britain's Got Talent: Season 19?: Ted Hill — 3¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 3%) - Will Anastasiia and Salsa win Britain's Got Talent: Season 19?: Anastasiia and Salsa — 3¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 1%) - Will Matty Juniosa win Britain's Got Talent: Season 19?: Matty Juniosa — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:08.303Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/britainsgottalent Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Anastasiia%20and%20Salsa%20win%20Britain's%20Got%20Talent Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev