92% — Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 110 Leader: Above 100 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-26 16:41:46 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 51% probability that Dutch Bros will achieve monthly foot traffic above 110 in August 2026, based on aggregated contract prices from Kalshi. The prediction reflects uncertainty about whether the coffee chain's customer visits will exceed this threshold during the month. Key drivers include Dutch Bros' historical traffic patterns, any seasonal fluctuations typical in August, and recent comparable store performance. The market shows relatively tight clustering across thresholds (100-108), suggesting traders view outcomes in the 100-110 range as most likely. Resolution depends on Dutch Bros' official reporting of August foot traffic metrics, which would typically be disclosed in quarterly earnings or specific traffic reports following month-end. Low trading volume across all contracts indicates limited recent market activity and potentially wider uncertainty bands than prices alone suggest. Key factors: - Dutch Bros' reported foot traffic for July 2026 and prior months provides a baseline for assessing whether August would exceed 110 - Seasonal traffic patterns in coffee retail, particularly August weather and consumer behavior trends, would influence whether this threshold is reached - The clustering of contract prices (52¢ for the 102-106 range, 47¢ for 108) indicates market consensus centers near 100-108, making 110 a marginal outcome - Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent conviction or new information flowing into these prices - The specific threshold of 110 sits only marginally above the 104-106 range where traders show 52¢ confidence, indicating this represents an incremental, not dramatic, performance level Contracts: - Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 100 ?: Above 100 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 102 ?: Above 102 — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 104 ?: Above 104 — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 106 ?: Above 106 — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 108 ?: Above 108 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 110 ?: Above 110 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 112 ?: Above 112 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 114 ?: Above 114 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-26T16:21:46.401Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brosft Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Dutch%20Bros%20Monthly%20Foot%20Traffic%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20110 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev