19% — Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Kalshi 19% · 4 contracts · $8 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:21:26 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 27% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro finishes second in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, behind the frontrunner. The probability reflects uncertainty about candidate positioning in what could be a competitive three-way or four-way race. Key drivers include Bolsonaro family political standing post-2022, the strength of alternative right-wing candidates like Romeu Zema, and how Lula's popularity evolves in office. The election occurs in October 2026, but significant shifts could occur during the campaign period through polling trends and political consolidation around candidates. Markets currently assign only 6% probability to Zema finishing second and 21% to Lula, suggesting Flávio is viewed as a stronger second-place contender than other opposition figures by traders, though still unlikely to outpace the expected frontrunner.

Key factors:
- Flávio Bolsonaro's current legal challenges and conviction status, which directly affect his eligibility and public viability as a candidate
- Lula administration approval ratings and economic conditions in Brazil through mid-2026, which influence whether an incumbent or opposition candidate leads the first round
- Whether the right-wing vote consolidates around Bolsonaro family candidates or fragments among alternatives like Zema or other center-right figures
- October 2026 election date and primary/pre-campaign polling data released in 2026, which will reveal actual candidate strength and voter preference distribution
- International and domestic political events between now and October 2026 that could shift momentum toward or away from Bolsonaro family political viability

Contracts:
- Will Renan Santos finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Renan Santos — 6¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 88%)
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Flávio Bolsonaro — 51¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 13%)
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Romeu Zema finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Romeu Zema — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:09.732Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brpresident2
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Fl%C3%A1vio%20Bolsonaro%20finish%202nd%20in%20the%20first%20round%20of%20the%202026%20Brazilian%20presidential%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev