20% — Will Romeu Zema finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election Kalshi 20% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 10:19:20 UTC Why this matters: This contract resolves based on whether Romeu Zema finishes in exactly third place in Brazil's first-round presidential voting in 2026. At 16% probability, markets price this outcome as unlikely but material. The low probability reflects that Zema faces competition from other center-right and right-wing candidates for the third position, including figures like Ronaldo Caiado (priced at 14%) and various Bolsonaro family members. Zema's probability could rise if he gains momentum as a moderate alternative or if leading candidates consolidate support, pushing others into third. The outcome resolves on October 2, 2026, when Brazilians cast their ballots. Pre-election polling in the months preceding the vote will be the primary signal for movement in this contract, as it indicates whether Zema is tracking toward third place rather than fourth or lower finishes. Key factors: - Zema's polling position relative to other right-of-center candidates in the 2-3 months before October 2026 - Whether fragmentation among right-wing candidates allows one to break through or if votes consolidate around fewer names - Lula's position as frontrunner (he's priced at 19% to finish third, suggesting most expect him in the top two), which affects how many candidates compete for positions 2-4 - Regional strength of Zema in Minas Gerais and whether that translates to national viability sufficient for third place - Any endorsements or coalition-building involving Zema that clarify his competitive positioning versus other center-right contenders Contracts: - Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Eduardo Bolsonaro — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Flávio Bolsonaro — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Michelle Bolsonaro — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Ronaldo Caiado — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Renan Santos — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T09:20:50.378Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brpresident3 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Romeu%20Zema%20finish%203rd%20in%20the%20first%20round%20of%20the%202026%20Brazilian%20presidential%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev