91% — Bitcoin price  on Apr 21, 2026
Leader: $55,000 or above at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 19 contracts · $376K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $55,000 or above — 91¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 5%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $56,000 or above — 89¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 3%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $56,500 or above — 87¢ Kalshi $24K (weight 6%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $59,000 or above — 83¢ Kalshi $851 (weight 0%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $60,000 or above — 77¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 3%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $60,500 or above — 75¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 2%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $61,000 or above — 71¢ Kalshi $78K (weight 21%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $61,500 or above — 65¢ Kalshi $42K (weight 11%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:10.919Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/btcd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bitcoin%20price%20%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev