3% — Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $50K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 17:26:20 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 3% chance that Bitcoin's trimmed mean price will exceed $87,500 by April 30, 2026. The low probability reflects Bitcoin's price movements over the past six months and near-term market conditions. The main drivers of this probability are Bitcoin's recent trading range and volatility patterns; a significant rally would be required to reach the $87,500 threshold within the specified timeframe. The April 30 deadline provides roughly ten months for price appreciation, meaning sustained demand and favorable market conditions would be necessary to push the probability higher. Conversely, continued sideways trading or downward pressure would likely keep the probability depressed. The broader crypto market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and any major regulatory announcements will influence whether traders adjust this forecast higher or lower.

Key factors:
- Bitcoin's current price relative to the $87,500 target and historical volatility over the preceding six-month period
- The implied annualized return needed to reach $87,500 from current levels by April 30, 2026, versus typical Bitcoin price movements
- Trading volume and liquidity on major exchanges, which affect the feasibility of sustained price movements in either direction
- Macroeconomic factors including interest rate expectations and inflation data through April 2026
- Historical seasonal patterns in Bitcoin pricing during Q1-Q2 timeframes and their correlation to this specific probability level

Contracts:
- Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $75,000.00 — 3¢ Kalshi $50K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-01T07:20:51.289Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/btcmaxmon-btc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20BTC%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%2487500.00%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev