6% — Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader: Above $75,000.00 at 6% · Kalshi 6% · 3 contracts · $30K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-10 00:04:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $75,000.00 — 6¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 47%)
- Will BTC trimmed mean be above $77500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $77,500.00 — 5¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 50%)
- Will BTC trimmed mean be above $80000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $80,000.00 — 3¢ Kalshi $902 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-09T23:20:09.085Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/btcmaxmon-btc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20BTC%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%2487500.00%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev