18% — Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET Leader: Above $99,999.99 at 18% · Kalshi 18% · 7 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 11:08:29 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 33% chance Bitcoin trades above $109,999.99 by year-end 2026. The probability reflects mixed signals in related contracts: near-term barriers (June and July 2026 settlements trading at 3¢ and 12¢ respectively) suggest traders see Bitcoin struggling to sustain $100,000 levels in the immediate term, while the January 2027 $100,000 contract at 42¢ indicates slightly more confidence in recovery by early next year. The current price level, volatility trends, macroeconomic conditions including interest rates and inflation data, and regulatory developments will be primary drivers. The critical juncture appears to be June-July 2026, when market participants will have clearer signals about whether Bitcoin can hold above $100,000 or faces downward pressure. Key factors: - Near-term contracts (June and July 2026) price $100,000 levels at 3¢ and 12¢ respectively, suggesting low trader confidence in sustained momentum above that threshold within 2-3 months - The January 2027 contract at 42¢ for $100,000 indicates higher probability of recovery or stabilization by early 2027, creating a 9-point spread versus the December 2026 target - Bitcoin must appreciate approximately 110% from $50,000 baseline or significantly more from lower levels to reach $110,000, a substantial move requiring sustained bullish catalysts - Macro factors including Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation reports, and corporate/institutional adoption announcements will directly influence price discovery through year-end - The relative pricing of the $200,000 contract at 5¢ suggests tail-risk expectations of explosive upside remain priced as unlikely, constraining the probability of the more modest $110,000 target Contracts: - Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $99,999.99 — 18¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 71%) - Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $109,999.99 — 14¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%) - Will Bitcoin be above $119,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $119,999.99 — 9¢ Kalshi $748 (weight 8%) - Will Bitcoin be above $129,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $129,999.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $627 (weight 7%) - Will Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $149,999.99 — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%) - Will Bitcoin be above $139,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $139,999.99 — 5¢ Kalshi $191 (weight 2%) - Will Bitcoin be above $199,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $199,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T10:20:18.167Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/btcmaxy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20be%20above%20%24109%2C999.99%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev