12% — Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET Leader: Above $99,999.99 at 12% · Kalshi 12% · 6 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-08 02:04:31 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents the odds that Bitcoin will trade above $110,000 by the end of 2026, currently priced at 14% on prediction markets. The market is pricing in significant skepticism about such a move, which requires roughly 40% appreciation from current levels over the next 5.5 months. Two main forces drive this assessment: near-term momentum and macroeconomic conditions, particularly Federal Reserve policy and inflation data, which would push probability higher if accommodative; and technical resistance levels, where Bitcoin's ability to sustain moves above key price thresholds suggests whether such gains are feasible. The single biggest catalyst is Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions through year-end, which directly influence risk-on sentiment and capital flows into digital assets. Secondary catalysts include major institutional adoption announcements and cryptocurrency regulatory clarity from regulators. Key factors: - Bitcoin must appreciate approximately 40% from mid-$70,000 range to breach $110,000 within 5.5 months - Prediction market prices decline sharply across price tiers ($99k at 14%, $119k at 7%, $139k at 4%), indicating geometric skepticism about sustained upside - Federal Reserve monetary policy through Q4 2026 remains the primary variable affecting risk appetite and capital allocation toward volatile assets - 24-hour trading volume concentrates on the $99k-$100k level ($1,734), suggesting most market conviction sits below the $110k threshold - Historical volatility patterns and macro correlation suggest Bitcoin typically requires either exogenous bullish catalysts or sustained reduction in real-rate expectations to achieve 40%+ moves in compressed timeframes Contracts: - Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $99,999.99 — 12¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 89%) - Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $109,999.99 — 9¢ Kalshi $246 (weight 10%) - Will Bitcoin be above $119,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $119,999.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - Will Bitcoin be above $129,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $129,999.99 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bitcoin be above $139,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $139,999.99 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Above $149,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-08T01:20:49.703Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/btcmaxy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20be%20above%20%24109%2C999.99%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev