38% — Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 Leader: Below $57,500.00 at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 3 contracts · $119K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:29 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Bitcoin's trimmed mean price will remain below $75,000 by May 31, 2026—roughly a 45% chance. The current market pricing suggests traders see meaningful downside risk over the next seven weeks, though uncertainty remains substantial. Price movements depend primarily on macroeconomic conditions, Federal Reserve policy signals, and broader cryptocurrency adoption trends. The contract structure reveals a distribution of expectations: markets assign only 4% probability to sub-$60,000 levels and 16% to sub-$70,000, indicating traders expect Bitcoin to trade in a relatively narrow band. The resolution date itself represents a near-term catalyst, as any major regulatory announcements, inflation data, or geopolitical developments before May 31 could significantly shift probabilities across the contract ladder. Key factors: - BTC trimmed mean is currently trading above $75,000, meaning prices must decline approximately 1.3% or more to resolve the headline contract below its strike - The highest trading volume ($4,262 in 24h) concentrates on the sub-$70,000 contract at 16%, suggesting material downside moves would require substantial negative catalysts - Fourteen days separate today from the resolution date; liquidity tapers sharply at extreme strikes ($60,000 at 4¢, $4 volume), indicating low conviction in severe drawdowns - The multi-outcome contract structure creates a 29% gap between the $75,000 strike (45%) and runner-up outcomes, revealing disagreement about intermediate price levels - Historical Bitcoin volatility patterns and the narrow 22-week timeframe constrain the probability distribution—traders are pricing limited extreme outcomes in both directions Contracts: - Will BTC trimmed mean be below $57500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Below $57,500.00 — 38¢ Kalshi $68K (weight 57%) - Will BTC trimmed mean be below $55000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Below $55,000.00 — 11¢ Kalshi $33K (weight 28%) - Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Below $52,500.00 — 5¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 15%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.477Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/btcminmon-btc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20BTC%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20below%20%2462500.00%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev