93% — Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET Leader: Before Sep 18, 2026 at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 8 contracts · $51K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 03:29:41 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects an estimated 62% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $75,000 by October 2, 2026. The contracts show a clear pattern: the farther out the deadline, the higher the probability, suggesting traders believe Bitcoin has a moderate chance to reach this level within two months but face near-term pressure. Current pricing indicates uncertainty about near-term movement, with only 8% probability assigned to a $75,000 close by August 28. The primary drivers are Bitcoin's current price relative to this threshold and broader market sentiment about cryptocurrency volatility over the next six weeks. Resolution depends on sustained upward price momentum, as Bitcoin would need to appreciate substantially from typical August 2026 levels to clear $75,000 by early September or hold above it through early October. Key factors: - Bitcoin's price relative to $75,000 as of late August 2026 and daily volatility patterns - The probability decline from 62% (Oct 2) to 48% (Sep 25) to 44% (Sep 18) indicates time-decay effects, suggesting uncertainty increases as deadline approaches - Federal Reserve policy signals or macroeconomic data releases between August 20 and October 2 that could influence risk appetite and cryptocurrency demand - Trading volume and bid-ask spreads on major Bitcoin exchanges, which indicate conviction levels among institutional and retail participants - Historical correlation between Bitcoin price movements and broader equity market sentiment, particularly during periods of volatility Contracts: - Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Sep 18, 2026 — 93¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 16%) - Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Sep 4, 2026 — 91¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 9%) - Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Aug 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Aug 28, 2026 — 90¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 21%) - Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Sep 11, 2026 — 90¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 14%) - Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Sep 25, 2026 — 90¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 7%) - Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Oct 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Oct 2, 2026 — 90¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) - Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Oct 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Oct 9, 2026 — 90¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%) - Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Aug 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Aug 21, 2026 — 77¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 23%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-22T02:20:53.711Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/btcprice-75000 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20be%20above%20%2475%2C000%20by%20Sep%204%2C%202026%20at%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev