13% — BTC price on Jan 1, 2027 Leader: 65,000 to 69,999.99 at 13% · Kalshi 13% · 11 contracts · $26K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-07 00:01:09 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates an 11% probability that Bitcoin trades between $65,000 and $69,999 on January 1, 2027. Trading activity concentrates on lower price ranges ($55,000–$64,999), suggesting market participants assign higher cumulative probability to Bitcoin remaining below $65,000 over the next six months. The current leader position reflects modest conviction rather than consensus. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and cryptocurrency regulatory developments. The resolution date itself—January 1, 2027—represents a fixed point where uncertainty collapses to a single Bitcoin price observation. Until then, volatility, institutional adoption trends, and geopolitical events could shift probabilities meaningfully across all outcome brackets. Key factors: - Trading volume concentrates on $55,000–$64,999 brackets ($21.5k combined 24h volume) versus $65,000–$69,999 ($6,928 24h volume), suggesting market-implied median expectations lie below the current leader outcome - The 11% probability for $65,000–$69,999 is the single highest outcome but represents minority conviction across a fragmented distribution of price outcomes - Historical Bitcoin volatility and the six-month time horizon mean a >5% move in either direction from current spot price would significantly alter the probability distribution across all brackets - Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and risk-asset sentiment through late 2026 will materially influence which price range resolves, as Bitcoin historically correlates with equity market conditions - Bitcoin's regulatory status in major jurisdictions remains unsettled, and any significant policy shifts between July 2026 and January 2027 could rapidly reprrice expectations across all outcome brackets Contracts: - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 65,000 to 69,999.99 — 13¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 36%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 70,000 to 74,999.99 — 10¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 17%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 60,000 to 64,999.99 — 9¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 22%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 55,000 to 59,999.99 — 9¢ Kalshi $338 (weight 1%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 75,000 to 79,999.99 — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 50,000 to 54,999.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 80,000 to 84,999.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 45,000 to 49,999.99 — 5¢ Kalshi $971 (weight 4%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-06T23:20:49.450Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/btcy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=BTC%20price%20%20on%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev