94% — Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.550M
Leader: Above 1.250M at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 5 contracts · $22 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether US building permits will exceed 1.55 million in March 2026, with the current 48% probability suggesting near even odds. Building permits are an early indicator of construction activity and housing market health, making this threshold economically relevant for understanding residential demand. The probability reflects recent permit trends and market expectations around housing supply constraints. Movements would likely reflect incoming data on housing starts, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence affecting builder activity. The data will be published by the Census Bureau in early April 2026, which will definitively resolve the contract.

Key factors:
- March 2026 permits must reach or exceed 1,550,000 units to resolve affirmatively, compared to recent monthly permit levels visible in 2025-2026 data
- Related April 2026 permits contracts show strong pricing above 1.3M and 1.35M (85¢ and 80¢) but very weak pricing above 1.55M (5¢), indicating market skepticism of sustained high permit activity
- US Census Bureau releases monthly building permit data with a lag; the March figure will be published in early April 2026 and cannot be changed after official release
- Mortgage rates and interest rate expectations significantly influence builder permit filings, as do inventory levels and demand signals in regional housing markets
- Seasonal patterns in permit issuance typically show Q1 weakness relative to spring/summer months, which could weigh on March outcomes

Contracts:
- Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.250M?: Above 1.250M — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.300M?: Above 1.300M — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.400M?: Above 1.400M — 52¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 100%)
- Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.450M?: Above 1.450M — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.500M?: Above 1.500M — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:48.786Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/buildperms
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20building%20permits%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%201.550M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev