51% — Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Leader: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli at 51% · Polymarket 51% · 4 contracts · $37 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:12:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that a Bundesliga club will finish 16th and secure survival through relegation playoffs rather than drop directly to the second division. The current estimate is shaped by how far into the 2025-26 season we are and which teams remain mathematically competitive for that playoff spot. Bundesliga teams finishing 16th play a two-legged playoff against the third-place team from the second division. The probability will shift based on mid-table clubs' remaining fixture difficulty, current point totals relative to safe positions, and injury status of key players. The main driver of movement will be final match results in May 2026, when the Bundesliga season concludes and the 16th-place finisher is mathematically determined. Markets for individual teams like Köln (44¢) and Hamburger SV (9¢) suggest significant dispersion in which specific club finishes 16th, but consensus remains that one team will occupy that spot rather than multiple teams being relegated outright.

Key factors:
- Current point differential between 16th and 17th place determines whether a team is mathematically safe for playoffs or faces direct relegation
- Remaining fixtures for mid-table clubs and their opponent difficulty ratings affect probability of a team accumulating enough points to reach 16th
- Historical Bundesliga playoff conversion rates show how often 16th-place finishers actually survive the two-legged playoff against second division third-place teams
- Injury reports and suspensions for key mid-table players in April and May 2026 impact performance in decisive final matches
- May 2026 match results are the primary resolution event, as final league standings determine which team finishes exactly 16th

Contracts:
- Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli — 51¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 26%)
- Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Heidenheim — 48¢ Polymarket $27 (weight 74%)
- Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Köln — 40¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): VfL Wolfsburg — 37¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bundesliga-16th-place-relegation-survivor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bundesliga%3A%2016th%20Place%20(Relegation%20Survivor)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev