95% — Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated
Leader: FC Heidenheim at 95% · Polymarket 95% · 3 contracts · $182 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 24% probability represents the market's assessment that at least one Bundesliga club will be relegated from the top division at the end of the 2025-26 season. Relegation is determined by final league position, with the bottom three clubs dropping to the second tier. The probability reflects uncertainty about which teams will finish in the danger zone, typically influenced by current league standings, fixture difficulty, and team form. The main resolution point is the final match day of the Bundesliga season, currently scheduled for May 2026. Key drivers of this probability include the competitive strength of mid-table clubs competing to avoid the drop zone and the performance consistency of historically strong teams that might face unexpected struggles.

Key factors:
- Current league standings show which clubs are in and near relegation positions as of May 2026
- Recent win-loss records and goal differential trends of bottom-half teams indicate momentum and relegation risk
- Remaining fixture schedules and strength of opponents for struggling teams affect their probability of collecting enough points to escape
- Team composition changes through January transfer windows can significantly impact relegation candidates' competitive strength
- Historical performance data shows variance in which clubs drop to second tier year-over-year, reflecting league competitiveness

Contracts:
- Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated?: FC Heidenheim — 95¢ Polymarket $136 (weight 75%)
- Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated?: St. Pauli — 33¢ Polymarket $46 (weight 25%)
- Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated?: FC Koln — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bundesliga%20-%20Which%20Clubs%20Get%20Relegated
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev