91% — Will Government of the UK report that Alan Campbell is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham Leader: Shabana Mahmood at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 20 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 07:14:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract predicts whether the UK Government will officially confirm Alan Campbell as a full Cabinet minister under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. At 40%, the market views this as unlikely compared to other potential Cabinet members like Angela Rayner (91%) and Heidi Alexander (87%). The lower probability reflects that Campbell currently holds a junior ministerial role and faces competition from senior Labour figures with stronger claims to Cabinet positions. The key driver is whether Burnham, if he becomes Prime Minister, prioritizes Campbell for a full Cabinet post versus other established senior MPs. Resolution depends on an official government announcement or the published Cabinet list following such a transition. The probability could shift significantly if Burnham's path to Number 10 becomes more or less certain, or if Campbell's political standing changes materially. The modest trading volume ($4 in 24-hour activity) suggests limited market attention to this specific outcome relative to higher-probability candidates. Key factors: - Alan Campbell's current role is a junior minister, not a full Cabinet position, making elevation to Cabinet less certain than for sitting senior MPs - Angela Rayner at 91% and Heidi Alexander at 87% show the market favors more established figures for Cabinet roles under Burnham - No scheduled Cabinet formation date is publicly set; the probability depends entirely on a hypothetical Burnham premiership occurring - Campbell's South Ribble constituency aligns geographically with Burnham's Greater Manchester base, which could factor into patronage decisions - Trading volume of only $4 in 24 hours suggests this contract has received minimal analyst attention compared to top candidates Contracts: - Will Government of the UK report that Shabana Mahmood is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Shabana Mahmood — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Government of the UK report that Ed Miliband is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Ed Miliband — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Government of the UK report that Yvette Cooper is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Yvette Cooper — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Government of the UK report that Heidi Alexander is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Heidi Alexander — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Government of the UK report that Angela Rayner is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Angela Rayner — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Government of the UK report that Louise Haigh is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Louise Haigh — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Government of the UK report that Lisa Nandy is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Lisa Nandy — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Government of the UK report that Wes Streeting is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?: Wes Streeting — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:50.068Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/burnhamjul Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Government%20of%20the%20UK%20report%20that%20Alan%20Campbell%20is%20officially%20listed%20or%20confirmed%20as%20serving%20as%20a%20full%20Cabinet%20minister%20under%20Andy%20Burnham Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev