95% — CA-03 Primary Winners
Leader: Ami Bera at 95% · Polymarket 95% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:55:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Contracts:
- CA-03 Primary Winners: Ami Bera — 95¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- CA-03 Primary Winners: Robb Tucker — 77¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- CA-03 Primary Winners: Christine Bish — 18¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- CA-03 Primary Winners: Heidi Hall — 13¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- CA-03 Primary Winners: Chris Bennett — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- CA-03 Primary Winners: Chris Richardson — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- CA-03 Primary Winners: Laura Koscki — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- CA-03 Primary Winners: Lyndon Cervantes — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.739Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca03-primary-winners
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-03%20Primary%20Winners
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev