96% — CA-04 Primary Winners
Leader: Mike Thompson at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 3 contracts · $297 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 14:46:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 39% probability reflects the likelihood that a specific candidate will win the California 4th Congressional District primary in 2026. The estimate sits between two different market assessments: Kalshi contracts price it at 62%, while Polymarket contracts average 35%, a substantial 27-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about the race outcome. The probability would likely move higher if polling shows the favored candidate gaining ground, or lower if unexpected challengers enter or if fundraising shifts materially. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this question, providing the key catalyst when California holds its primary vote in June 2026.

Key factors:
- Kalshi and Polymarket show a 27-point spread, indicating significant market disagreement that could narrow as campaign information becomes clearer
- Eric Jones appears as the leading name across multiple contracts, trading at 50¢ on Polymarket and 63-89¢ on Kalshi, suggesting he is the frontrunner though not consensus favorite
- Trading volume remains low ($96-522 per day), meaning thin liquidity could amplify price movements from new information or modest money flows
- No recent polling data or campaign finance reports are reflected in the summary, creating room for shift as 2026 progresses
- The California primary is scheduled for June 2026 and will provide definitive resolution of all related contracts

Contracts:
- CA-04 Primary Winners: Mike Thompson — 96¢ Polymarket $49 (weight 17%)
- CA-04 Primary Winners: Eric Jones — 92¢ Polymarket $242 (weight 81%)
- CA-04 Primary Winners: Laurie MacKenzie — 4¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T07:20:23.157Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca04-primary-winners
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-04%20Primary%20Winners
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev