97% — Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:25:54 UTC

Contracts:
- Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary?: Eric Jones — 97¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-14T01:20:53.510Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca04primary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20advance%20from%20the%202026%20CA-04%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev