96% — CA-06 Primary Winners
Leader: Kevin Kiley at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 7 contracts · $47 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:55:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Contracts:
- CA-06 Primary Winners: Kevin Kiley — 96¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-06 Primary Winners: Richard Pan — 64¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-06 Primary Winners: Lauren Babb Tomlinson — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-06 Primary Winners: Thien Ho — 24¢ Polymarket $46 (weight 98%)
- CA-06 Primary Winners: Tyler Vandenberg — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-06 Primary Winners: Michael Stansfield — 6¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 2%)
- CA-06 Primary Winners: Martha Guerrero — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.189Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca06-primary-winners
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-06%20Primary%20Winners
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev