96% — CA-07 House Election Winner
Leader: Democratic Party at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 2 contracts · $95 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:08:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 60% probability reflects market participants' assessment that a specific candidate or party will win the CA-07 House seat in the next general election. This probability sits at a moderate level, suggesting meaningful uncertainty remains about the eventual outcome. The current assessment is likely driven by factors such as recent polling data, district demographics, and historical voting patterns in California's 7th congressional district. Changes to this probability would follow shifts in campaign dynamics, candidate positioning, or new polling releases. The next scheduled general election will provide the definitive resolution, though primary results and campaign developments in the months leading up to voting day serve as intermediate indicators that could shift market sentiment.

Key factors:
- Polling aggregates and their trend direction in CA-07 over the past 60-90 days
- District partisan lean based on recent presidential and statewide election results
- Candidate quality, fundraising totals, and campaign organization metrics reported by news outlets
- Primary election results if applicable, showing candidate viability and base enthusiasm
- Historical accuracy of prediction markets in similar House races within the same election cycle

Contracts:
- CA-07 House Election Winner: Democratic Party — 96¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-07 House Election Winner: Republican Party — 4¢ Polymarket $95 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca07-house-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-07%20House%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev