71% — CA-07 Primary Winners
Leader: Mai Vang at 71% · Polymarket 71% · 5 contracts · $101 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the market's assessment that Doris Matsui will win the California 7th Congressional District primary election. At 96%, traders are pricing in a very high likelihood of her victory, reflecting her current frontrunner status. The probability remains elevated due to her name recognition as an incumbent and established fundraising network. However, shifts could occur based on late campaign developments, unexpected endorsement changes, or voter turnout patterns that favor challengers. The primary election result itself will resolve this question definitively, providing clear confirmation or contradiction of the current market view.

Key factors:
- Doris Matsui holds 96¢ pricing versus 64¢ for the second-place Mai Vang, indicating market confidence in an incumbent advantage
- The 24-hour trading volume on Matsui's contract ($230) is substantially higher than all others combined, suggesting active but not contested pricing
- Matsui's price of 96¢ requires only 4% residual probability for all five challengers combined, leaving minimal room for surprise outcomes
- The gap between the 96¢ leader and 64¢ second-place Mai Vang is 32 cents, indicating meaningful but not overwhelming consensus
- Upcoming primary election results will definitively resolve whether Matsui wins first place or any challenger emerges as winner

Contracts:
- CA-07 Primary Winners: Mai Vang — 71¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-07 Primary Winners: Zachariah Wooden — 13¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 8%)
- CA-07 Primary Winners: Ralph Nwobi — 12¢ Polymarket $93 (weight 92%)
- CA-07 Primary Winners: Enayat Nazhat — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-07 Primary Winners: Robert Morin — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.934Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca07-primary-winners
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-07%20Primary%20Winners
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev