68% — Who will win the CA-11 House election
Leader: Scott Wiener at 68% · Kalshi 68% · 2 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market indicates an 86% probability that Scott Wiener will win California's 11th congressional House seat in 2026. This reflects current expectations based on available information about the race, though the actual outcome remains uncertain. The probability is primarily driven by Wiener's strong performance expectations in both the primary and general election phases, as evidenced by his 93-cent primary contract price. Saikat Chakrabarti, another candidate, shows 34 cents in the general election market, indicating meaningful but lower perceived viability. Key factors that could shift this probability include primary election results (which would clarify the likely general election matchup), late-breaking campaign developments, or significant shifts in voter preference data. The race will be resolved following the November 2026 general election, though primary results in June 2026 will likely create major repricing across these contracts as the field narrows and clearer matchups emerge.

Key factors:
- Scott Wiener trades at 93¢ in the primary contract, suggesting market confidence he will secure the Democratic nomination in what appears to be a heavily Democratic district
- Saikat Chakrabarti's general election contract (34¢) and primary prospects (implied lower probability) indicate meaningful competition but not sufficient to dislodge the current frontrunner
- 24-hour volume is highest on the general election Chakrabarti contract ($5,099), suggesting active disagreement or information flow about alternative outcomes
- The gap between Wiener's primary price (93¢) and general election price (62¢) indicates some expectation of general election vulnerability, though modest
- Primary election scheduled for June 2026 will serve as a major catalyst, potentially clarifying field dynamics and triggering significant probability shifts across all candidate contracts

Contracts:
- Who will win the CA-11 House election?: Scott Wiener — 68¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 53%)
- Who will win the CA-11 House election?: Connie Chan — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 47%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.157Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "68% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca11person
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20CA-11%20House%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev