65% — Who will win the CA-11 House election
Leader: Scott Wiener at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 2 contracts · $5K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 16:17:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The CA-11 House election prediction market shows Scott Wiener favored at 68%, meaning traders assess a roughly two-to-one probability he'll win the seat over Connie Chan. This reflects expected performance based on candidate fundraising, past voting patterns in the district, and current polling data. The probability remains open to revision as campaign dynamics evolve and more information emerges. Key uncertainties include last-minute endorsements, turnout patterns, and whether unforeseen campaign events shift voter sentiment. The general election itself will resolve this market with certainty on Election Day 2026, at which point all remaining uncertainty disappears.

Key factors:
- Scott Wiener's 68% probability implies he holds a meaningful but not overwhelming structural advantage in the race
- The 39-percentage-point gap between Wiener and Chan reflects either significant polling divergence or market assessment of one candidate's weakness
- Low 24-hour trading volume on Chan's contract ($0) suggests limited recent market activity to test conviction in the current odds
- California's 11th district voting history and demographic composition form the baseline from which the 68% probability is anchored
- Campaign cash on hand, field operations strength, and any recent polling releases would be concrete metrics that move these probabilities materially

Contracts:
- Who will win the CA-11 House election?: Scott Wiener — 65¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 95%)
- Who will win the CA-11 House election?: Connie Chan — 30¢ Kalshi $244 (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca11person
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20CA-11%20House%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev