89% — CA-14 Special Election Winner
Leader: Aisha Wahab at 89% · Polymarket 89% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:37:24 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market assigns an 82% probability to Aisha Wahab winning California's 14th congressional district special election, with runner-up Rakhi Israni Singh at 32%. This reflects the betting market's assessment of Wahab's likelihood of victory based on available information about candidate positioning, endorsements, and voter sentiment in the district. The high probability for Wahab suggests traders view her as the frontrunner, though the 32% price on Singh indicates material uncertainty remains. The election itself will resolve this outcome definitively. Factors driving the current level include candidate fundraising totals, prior electoral performance in the district, demographic alignment with voters, and any recent polling or endorsement shifts. A special election date would serve as the primary catalyst that narrows or closes remaining uncertainty.

Key factors:
- Aisha Wahab's price (82¢) exceeds Singh's (32¢) by 50 percentage points, indicating asymmetric trader conviction about relative viability
- The top three candidates (Wahab, Singh, Ortega) account for roughly 123¢ of implied probability across contracts, suggesting high fragmentation or overlap in market pricing
- Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours indicates low current market activity and potential staleness of probability estimates
- Candidate names and backgrounds would need to be cross-referenced against California voter registration, past special election results, and recent fundraising disclosures for validation
- The special election date and candidate qualification deadlines determine the timing and final field, either confirming or disrupting current price signals

Contracts:
- CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Aisha Wahab — 89¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Rakhi Israni Singh — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Carin Elam — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Melissa Hernandez — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.572Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca14-special-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-14%20Special%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev