93% — Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election
Leader: Aisha Wahab at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 3 contracts · $840 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 93% probability for Aisha Wahab represents the market's assessment that she is the heavy favorite to win California's 14th congressional district special election in 2026. This high confidence reflects her current political positioning and name recognition in the district. The probability could shift based on late candidate entries, endorsements from established figures, or turnout patterns in special elections, which historically show lower participation and can produce unexpected outcomes. The election itself will serve as the definitive resolution point, with results determining the actual winner. Polling data, campaign spending, and voter registration trends leading into the election date will likely influence market pricing in the final weeks.

Key factors:
- Aisha Wahab holds 93% contract value compared to 4% and 3% for nearest competitors, indicating concentrated market confidence
- Special elections typically feature lower turnout and higher volatility than general elections, creating potential for outcome shifts
- No active trading volume ($0 in 24-hour volume) suggests limited recent information flow or market reassessment of the three-candidate field
- Late candidate entry or withdrawal before the election deadline could alter the competitive landscape and shift probabilities
- Endorsement patterns and campaign resource allocation by established Democratic or Republican figures may serve as leading indicators of shifting expectations

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?: Aisha Wahab — 93¢ Kalshi $821 (weight 98%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?: Rakhi Israni Singh — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?: Melissa Hernandez — 3¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.332Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca14swinner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20CA-14%20special%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev