95% — CA-34 Primary Winners
Leader: Jimmy Gomez at 95% · Polymarket 95% · 4 contracts · $176 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:55:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Contracts:
- CA-34 Primary Winners: Jimmy Gomez — 95¢ Polymarket $144 (weight 82%)
- CA-34 Primary Winners: Angela Gonzales-Torres — 79¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 18%)
- CA-34 Primary Winners: Calvin Lee — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-34 Primary Winners: Robert Lucero — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.240Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca34-primary-winners
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-34%20Primary%20Winners
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev