96% — CA-41 Primary Winners
Leader: Linda Sánchez at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 4 contracts · $80 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:40:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Linda Sánchez wins the California 41st congressional district primary election. At 96%, the market is pricing in a very strong expectation of her victory, though primary elections retain inherent uncertainty. The high confidence likely stems from factors such as name recognition, prior electoral performance, or fundraising advantages. However, unexpected candidate withdrawals, major policy shifts, or turnout changes could alter the outcome. The primary election itself will resolve this question definitively on election day, which determines which candidate advances to the general election. Until then, late-breaking endorsements, campaign incidents, or shifts in voter sentiment could move probabilities, though the market currently shows minimal trading volume on alternative outcomes.

Key factors:
- Linda Sánchez is priced 6-8 percentage points higher than the second-place candidate (Mitch Clemmons at 88%), suggesting clear market differentiation between the top two contenders
- Trading volume has been zero on the three contracts outside Williams in the past 24 hours, indicating limited market conviction testing the current price hierarchy
- The 96¢ contract price for Sánchez versus 50¢ for De La Torre and 3¢ for Williams shows extreme concentration of probability mass on a single outcome
- The specific primary election date will conclusively resolve all four candidate contracts simultaneously, eliminating optionality once voting occurs
- Voter registration data, polling, and pre-primary fundraising totals are publicly available metrics that could validate or challenge the market's 96% assessment

Contracts:
- CA-41 Primary Winners: Linda Sánchez — 96¢ Polymarket $80 (weight 100%)
- CA-41 Primary Winners: Mitch Clemmons — 88¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-41 Primary Winners: Hector De La Torre — 52¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- CA-41 Primary Winners: Shonique Williams — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.825Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca41-primary-winners
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-41%20Primary%20Winners
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev