64% — CA-45 Primary Winners
Leader: Chuong Vo at 64% · Polymarket 64% · 4 contracts · $312 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-11 13:13:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Contracts:
- CA-45 Primary Winners: Chuong Vo — 64¢ Polymarket $47 (weight 15%)
- CA-45 Primary Winners: Chi Charlie Nguyen — 17¢ Polymarket $29 (weight 9%)
- CA-45 Primary Winners: Tom Vo — 13¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 10%)
- CA-45 Primary Winners: Mark Leonard — 3¢ Polymarket $204 (weight 65%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-11T01:20:12.452Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "64% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ca45-primary-winners
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CA-45%20Primary%20Winners
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev