79% — Will Proposition 38 pass
Leader: Proposition 1 at 79% · Kalshi 79% · 12 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:15:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Proposition 38 is currently priced at 61 cents on prediction markets, indicating that traders assess a roughly 61% probability of passage. This reflects moderate confidence compared to other propositions in the same ballot measure set, where Proposition 2 leads at 73%. The pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether the measure will clear the threshold needed for passage. Key drivers of the current probability likely include recent polling data, campaign funding levels, and demographic composition of likely voters. Resolution will occur on election day when official vote counts determine passage. Markets may adjust significantly if new polling emerges, major campaign developments occur, or turnout models shift based on early voting data.

Key factors:
- Current Kalshi contract price of 61¢ represents substantially lower confidence than the leading proposition (73¢), suggesting relative weakness among this ballot measure
- 24-hour trading volume of $39 on this contract is low compared to Proposition 45 ($741), indicating limited recent trader attention or consensus
- Proposition 38's pricing sits between more popular measures (Prop 2 at 73¢, Prop 1 at 49¢), placing it in mid-tier likelihood within the same ballot cycle
- Resolution depends on official election results; shifts would likely occur if new polling data releases or voter turnout models change materially before election day
- The multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means this contract's value is directly contingent on the specific proposition passing, not relative performance

Contracts:
- Will Proposition 1 pass?: Proposition 1 — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Proposition 5 pass?: Proposition 5 — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Proposition 37 pass?: Proposition 37 — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Proposition 2 pass?: Proposition 2 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Proposition 38 pass?: Proposition 38 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Proposition 3 pass?: Proposition 3 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Proposition 39 pass?: Proposition 39 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Proposition 45 pass?: Proposition 45 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T21:20:49.678Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "79% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/caballotmeasures
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Proposition%2038%20pass
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev