8% — Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet Kalshi 8% · 9 contracts · $325 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-09 19:06:28 UTC Why this matters: This contract measures the likelihood that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be the first member of Trump's Cabinet to depart. At 12%, RFK Jr. ranks third among Cabinet members in departure probability, behind Pete Hegseth (14%) and tied with Howard Lutnick (14%), but ahead of Susie Wiles (7%). The probability reflects market assessment of tenure stability based on factors including confirmation challenges, policy conflict potential, and organizational friction. RFK Jr.'s position as HHS Secretary has historically been controversial given his stance on vaccines and pharmaceutical regulation, which could either accelerate or complicate any departure. Market participants are pricing in the typical Cabinet turnover rates observed in previous administrations, adjusted for specific personnel dynamics. There is no imminent scheduled resolution event, making this a longer-duration uncertainty contract shaped by ongoing political dynamics and performance assessments rather than a near-term trigger. Key factors: - RFK Jr. ranks third in departure probability behind Hegseth (14%) and Lutnick (14%), suggesting markets view him as moderately likely but not the most unstable appointee - The contract volume ($158 24h) is relatively modest compared to Hegseth's ($932), indicating less market consensus on RFK Jr.'s specific tenure risk - HHS leadership positions carry documented turnover risk due to regulatory conflicts, budget disputes, and policy friction with other agencies - RFK Jr.'s public statements on vaccines and pharmaceuticals have generated congressional scrutiny that could either lead to forced resignation or paradoxically entrench him with Trump - Cabinet departures typically occur 18-36 months into an administration, making this a medium-to-long-term uncertainty without a specific catalyst date Contracts: - Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Pete Hegseth — 11¢ Kalshi $206 (weight 63%) - Will Markwayne Mullin be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Markwayne Mullin — 11¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 15%) - Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 16¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 11%) - Will Howard Lutnick be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Howard Lutnick — 6¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 6%) - Will Doug Burgum be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Doug Burgum — 3¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 2%) - Will Chris Wright be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Chris Wright — 15¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%) - Will Susie Wiles be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Susie Wiles — 7¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will Brooke Rollins be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Brooke Rollins — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-09T18:20:49.430Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cabout Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Robert%20F.%20Kennedy%20Jr.%20be%20the%20next%20person%20to%20leave%20the%20Trump%20Cabinet Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev