96% — Who will win the 2026 CA-37 House election
Leader: Lateefah Simon at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 16 contracts · $32 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-12 23:59:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Sydney Kamlager-Dove will win California's 37th House District election in 2026. The 93% assessment suggests strong confidence in her candidacy, likely driven by factors such as her current political standing, district demographics, and fundraising advantages relative to potential challengers. The actual outcome depends on several variables: whether primary opposition emerges, turnout patterns, and how national political conditions evolve between now and Election Day in November 2026. The primary election in June 2026 will provide the first concrete signal of candidate viability and voter preferences, potentially shifting market confidence significantly if unexpected challengers gain momentum or if fundraising data reveals competitive dynamics not yet priced in.

Key factors:
- Sydney Kamlager-Dove's primary election performance in June 2026 will be the first direct measurement of voter support in the district
- Fundraising totals and spending by Kamlager-Dove relative to any primary or general election opponents will indicate resource disparities affecting campaign reach
- District voter registration trends and demographic shifts between now and November 2026 could alter the electorate composition favoring different candidates
- General election turnout levels in California's 37th District, influenced by statewide and national election dynamics, will affect which candidate's base mobilizes more effectively
- Emergence of well-funded or otherwise competitive challengers in either the primary or general election phase would directly test whether 93% probability reflects durable support or concentrated market sentiment

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 CA-12 House election?: Lateefah Simon — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-37 House election?: Sydney Kamlager-Dove — 92¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 17%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-14 House election?: Aisha Wahab — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-04 House election?: Mike Thompson — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-29 House election?: Luz Rivas — 87¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 14%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-40 House election?: Ken Calvert — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-34 House election?: Jimmy Gomez — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 CA-07 House election?: Mai Vang — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-12T23:20:50.611Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/caelection
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20CA-37%20House%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev