97% — Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 00:53:42 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the market's assessment that Chad Bianco will finish in second place in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary election at 14% probability. The relatively low probability reflects Bianco's position as a state official without the statewide name recognition of leading candidates, though as a Republican in a competitive primary he remains a plausible second-place finisher. Movement in this probability would depend on primary polling as the election approaches, candidate fundraising totals, and endorsement patterns among California Republicans. The primary election scheduled for June 2026 will definitively resolve this market, with the specific outcome determined by voter distribution across the Republican field.

Key factors:
- Current polling from major California Republican primary surveys showing Bianco's relative standing among GOP candidates
- Total fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for Bianco compared to other top Republican primary contenders
- Endorsements from significant California Republican figures and organizations that could indicate viability
- Turnout and voter preference patterns in recent California Republican primaries as a baseline for primary dynamics
- Bianco's performance and media coverage in the months immediately preceding the June 2026 primary election

Contracts:
- Will Steve Hilton finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Steve Hilton — 97¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-12T01:20:54.731Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cagov2nd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chad%20Bianco%20finish%202nd%20in%20the%202026%20California%20gubernatorial%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev