5% — Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Leader: Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, Porter, Bianco, Mahan at 5% · Kalshi 5% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 01:22:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 9% probability reflects the odds that California's 2026 gubernatorial primary will produce a specific top-six finishing order: Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, Bianco, Porter, and Mahan, in that exact sequence. With six major candidates and numerous possible permutations, any single ordering is inherently unlikely. The leading scenario prices in Becerra's strong polling position and apparent frontrunner status, though California primaries have historically produced surprises. Movement in this probability would likely reflect significant polling shifts among the top tier, changes in campaign momentum, or unexpected endorsements that reshape the competitive landscape. The primary election itself, scheduled for June 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome—any deviation from the exact specified order results in a zero payout.

Key factors:
- Current polling shows candidate viability and relative positioning among Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, and others, directly affecting the plausibility of this specific ordering
- Late campaign momentum and endorsement patterns in the weeks before June 2026 primary could shift vote shares enough to alter the precise finishing sequence
- Turnout dynamics and regional strength variations across California's diverse electorate can substantially impact final rankings, especially among clustered second and third-tier candidates
- The exact specification of six candidates in order—rather than just predicting the top two or three finishers—creates a conjunctive probability that compounds uncertainty across multiple positions
- Any significant polling surprise, candidate dropout, or late-breaking scandal in the final weeks before the June primary could eliminate one of the six names from contention entirely

Contracts:
- Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, Porter, Bianco, Mahan — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Becerra, Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Mahan, Porter — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Steyer, Hilton, Becerra, Bianco, Porter, Mahan — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-16T07:20:50.157Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cagovprimaryexact
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20exact%20finishing%20order%20be%20in%20the%202026%20California%20gubernatorial%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev