69% — Will Instacart App Downloads for August 2026 be above 100 Leader: Above 116 at 69% · Kalshi 69% · 9 contracts · $358 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:01 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This question asks whether Instacart will record more than 100 app downloads during August 2026. The 96% probability reflects strong confidence that this threshold will be exceeded, with traders pricing in a high likelihood based on Instacart's established market position and typical user behavior patterns. The probability gradient across contracts—dropping from 96% (above 100) to 77% (above 110) to 38% (above 125)—suggests traders expect downloads in the 110–120 range. Key drivers include seasonal download trends, competitive pressures from similar services, and marketing activity. The primary uncertainty will resolve when August 2026 data closes and download figures become public, typically in early September. Factors that could shift these odds include major app store algorithm changes, significant service disruptions, or unexpected competitive or regulatory developments during the month. Key factors: - Instacart's historical download volumes in comparable months; if July 2026 or August 2025 data showed consistently lower numbers, the current 96% would be harder to justify - Seasonal patterns in grocery delivery app adoption; summer months may see different download behavior than baseline periods - Competitor activity and market share shifts; launches or major campaigns from DoorDash, Amazon Fresh, or other delivery platforms could affect Instacart's relative appeal - App store ranking and algorithmic visibility; placement changes in iOS and Android stores directly influence discovery and download volume - Any operational disruptions, outages, or negative press during August 2026 that could suppress new user acquisition or encourage uninstalls Contracts: - Will Instacart App Downloads for September 2026 be above 116 ?: Above 116 — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Instacart App Downloads for September 2026 be above 120 ?: Above 120 — 64¢ Kalshi $251 (weight 70%) - Will Instacart App Downloads for September 2026 be above 122 ?: Above 122 — 52¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - Will Instacart App Downloads for September 2026 be above 124 ?: Above 124 — 46¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) - Will Instacart App Downloads for September 2026 be above 126 ?: Above 126 — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Instacart App Downloads for September 2026 be above 128 ?: Above 128 — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Instacart App Downloads for September 2026 be above 130 ?: Above 130 — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Instacart App Downloads for September 2026 be above 132 ?: Above 132 — 26¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 28%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cartapp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Instacart%20App%20Downloads%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20100 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev