92% — Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 455 cava restaurants in Q1 2026
Leader: Above 470 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 13 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:12:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract resolves based on whether CAVA Group Inc. will operate more than 455 restaurant locations when reporting Q1 2026 financial results, currently priced at 63% probability. CAVA has maintained steady expansion as a fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain. The outcome depends primarily on the company's actual unit growth rate over the preceding quarters and any changes to expansion plans or closures. Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or early May 2026, will provide the definitive restaurant count and resolve this contract. Historical growth trends, publicly announced expansion targets, and actual new openings versus planned openings will determine if the threshold is exceeded or missed.

Key factors:
- CAVA's historical quarterly unit growth rate and whether recent pace has accelerated, decelerated, or remained consistent
- Any public announcements from CAVA management regarding expansion plans, guidance revisions, or store closure decisions in 2025-2026
- Restaurant count as of Q4 2025 earnings report relative to the 455-unit threshold and runway needed
- Capital allocation priorities and available financing for expansion during the relevant period
- Comparable restaurant chain expansion rates and broader QSR market conditions affecting new unit economics

Contracts:
- Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 470 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 470 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 3% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 3% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 4.5% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 4.5% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 6% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 6% — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 475 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 475 — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 7.5% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 7.5% — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will CAVA Group Inc. report above 476 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 476 — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 9% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 9% — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.353Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cava
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20CAVA%20Group%20Inc.%20report%20Above%20455%20cava%20restaurants%20in%20Q1%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev