92% — Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 105 Leader: Above 96 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 12 contracts · $461 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:05 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Cava's monthly foot traffic will exceed 105 visits in August 2026, currently priced at 51% likelihood. The contract structure reveals a gradual confidence decline as thresholds increase: traffic above 100 trades at 52%, but above 104 drops to just 16%, suggesting the market expects results clustered in the high-90s to low-100s range. The main driver is historical foot-traffic patterns and seasonal trends, with August typically showing summer traffic dynamics. Resolution will depend on actual foot-traffic data released post-month, likely reported in early September. Current thin trading volume ($0 in the past 24 hours across these contracts) suggests limited recent conviction, and no major announced promotions or operational changes appear to be pricing in dramatic shifts. The narrow gap between 51% and 49% for the leading outcome indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether August will slightly exceed or fall just short of the 105 threshold. Key factors: - Historical August foot-traffic baseline for Cava relative to the 105-unit threshold; seasonal patterns and year-over-year growth rates - Promotional calendar and staffing levels scheduled for August 2026; any announced marketing initiatives or temporary store closures - Q3 2026 same-store sales trends and comparable location traffic data; whether recent periods show acceleration or deceleration - Definition and measurement methodology for 'foot traffic' used in official reporting; potential ambiguity in how visits are counted or aggregated - Post-August data release timing and source credibility; when and how Cava reports August foot-traffic figures to the market Contracts: - Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 96 ?: Above 96 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 97 ?: Above 97 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 98 ?: Above 98 — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 99 ?: Above 99 — 72¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 7%) - Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 100 ?: Above 100 — 62¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 2%) - Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 101 ?: Above 101 — 46¢ Kalshi $205 (weight 44%) - Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 102 ?: Above 102 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 103 ?: Above 103 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.670Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cavaft Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Cava%20Monthly%20Foot%20Traffic%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20105 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev