87% — Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting
Leader: Maintains rate at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 6 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-25 18:13:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 78% probability that the Bank of Canada will maintain its policy rate unchanged at its September 2026 meeting, reflecting expectations of ongoing monetary easing. This high probability reflects broader expectations that the central bank will continue cutting rates rather than hold steady. The key driver is the economic outlook: traders are currently pricing in larger cuts (over 25bps) at 8 cents per dollar, versus only 79 cents for a hold, suggesting the market believes conditions will warrant further loosening. The critical catalyst is economic data releases between now and September 2026—particularly inflation trends, employment figures, and GDP growth—which will determine whether the BoC maintains its current path or adjusts its stance. By December 2026, markets show even lower probability of a hold (5 cents), indicating an expectation of cumulative rate cuts through the fall.

Key factors:
- September 2026 holds priced at 79¢ while cuts >25bps trade at only 8¢, indicating asymmetric market conviction toward easing rather than stability
- December 2026 hold contracts trade at 5¢, showing markets expect the BoC will have moved toward cuts by year-end, not maintained a pause
- Current inflation data and economic growth trends through Q3 2026 will be the primary inputs determining whether the BoC maintains, cuts, or hikes at the September decision
- The market is actively pricing multiple consecutive cutting scenarios (25bps cuts appear in both September and December outcomes), not a prolonged hold pattern
- Trading volume is concentrated in the larger-cut contracts ($133 daily volume) versus the hold scenario ($7 daily volume), suggesting professional positioning favors easing

Contracts:
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 87¢ Kalshi $329 (weight 20%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 9¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 68%)
- Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 4¢ Kalshi $183 (weight 11%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-25T17:20:52.978Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cbdecisioncanada
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bank%20of%20Canada%20Hike%20rates%20by%200bps%20at%20their%20April%202026%20meeting
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev