83% — Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting
Leader: Maintains rate at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 10 contracts · $36 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 02:44:24 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract tracks whether the Bank of Canada will hold its policy rate unchanged at their April 2026 meeting. The 39% probability reflects market expectation that a rate change is more likely than no change. The current level is driven by two main factors: recent inflation data and the broader direction of Canadian monetary policy relative to the Federal Reserve. The April meeting itself will resolve this contract when the Bank of Canada announces its decision and accompanying statement on rates. Markets currently price similar contracts for June and beyond at much higher probabilities (92%), suggesting traders expect rate stability later this year but see greater uncertainty for the April decision specifically.

Key factors:
- April 2026 BoC meeting probability of 39% for no change is substantially lower than June 2026 market pricing at 92%, indicating current market consensus expects action in April
- Related Federal Reserve contracts show 94% pricing for 0bps in June and 91% in July, suggesting North American central banks face different near-term pressures
- The steep decline in probability from April (39%) to June (92%) to December (3%) indicates markets expect rate cuts beginning mid-year, not a frozen policy rate
- Current pricing reflects available inflation data and economic conditions as of early May 2026; any significant Canadian economic data release before the April meeting would shift probabilities
- The contract resolves upon the Bank of Canada's official rate announcement and decision statement at their scheduled April 2026 meeting

Contracts:
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 83¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 100%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Hike >25bps — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T02:20:51.072Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cbdecisioncanada
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bank%20of%20Canada%20Hike%20rates%20by%200bps%20at%20their%20April%202026%20meeting
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev