27% — Will the Bank of England Cut 1-25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting
Kalshi 20% · 5 contracts · $310 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 19:43:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This reflects traders' assessment of roughly a 1-in-4 chance that the Bank of England will lower its base rate by 1-25 basis points when the Monetary Policy Committee meets in June 2026. The probability sits well below expectations for a rate hold (61%), suggesting markets view a cut as unlikely in the near term. The outcome depends primarily on inflation data, employment figures, and economic growth readings between now and the meeting. Related BoE decisions and guidance released in the coming weeks will clarify the central bank's near-term direction. The June MPC meeting itself—scheduled for June 17-18, 2026—serves as the resolution event, though market expectations typically narrow significantly once forward guidance is issued by BoE officials.

Key factors:
- Current BoE base rate level and recent inflation print relative to the 2% target
- UK employment data and wage growth trends published before the June meeting
- Market pricing for BoE rate expectations as reflected in overnight index swaps and other derivatives
- Communications from BoE officials regarding economic conditions and policy stance in May and early June
- Global central bank actions (ECB, Federal Reserve) and their potential influence on sterling and UK economic outlook

Contracts:
- Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Maintain current rate — 61¢ Kalshi $182 (weight 30%)
- Will the Bank of England Hike 1-25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Hike 1-25bps — 29¢ Kalshi $92 (weight 26%)
- Will the Bank of England Cut 1-25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Cut 1-25bps — 3¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 15%)
- Will the Bank of England Cut more than 25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Cut more than 25bps — 3¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 15%)
- Will the Bank of England Hike more than 25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Hike more than 25bps — 3¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 15%)

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cbdecisionengland
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Bank%20of%20England%20Cut%201-25bps%20at%20the%20June%20Bank%20of%20England%20Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20meeting
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev