89% — Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting
Leader: Hike 1-25bps at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 4 contracts · $588 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 30% chance that South Korea's central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at its May monetary policy meeting. The Bank of Korea faces competing pressures: inflation data and economic growth considerations typically drive rate decisions, while global monetary trends—particularly signals from the Federal Reserve—influence expectations. The May meeting outcome will depend on recent inflation readings, employment conditions, and whether the BOK views current rates as appropriately calibrated to support economic activity. Once the Bank of Korea announces its decision, this market resolves with certainty.

Key factors:
- Recent inflation data in South Korea and its trajectory relative to the BOK's target range
- Global central bank actions and signals, especially from the Federal Reserve regarding its own rate path
- South Korea's economic growth rate and employment figures released ahead of the May meeting
- Market pricing of the decision in won-denominated assets and forward rate expectations
- The BOK's recent communications and guidance about future policy direction

Contracts:
- Will the Bank of Korea Hike 1-25bps at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?: Hike 1-25bps — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?: Maintain current rate — 8¢ Kalshi $588 (weight 100%)
- Will the Bank of Korea Cut 1-25bps at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?: Cut 1-25bps — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Bank of Korea Hike more than 25bps at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?: Hike more than 25bps — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.251Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cbdecisionkorea
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Bank%20of%20Korea%20Maintain%20current%20rate%20at%20the%20May%20Bank%20of%20Korea%20Monetary%20Policy%20Board%20meeting
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev