53% — Will the Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate before 2027
Kalshi 53% · 8 contracts · $262 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 11:12:29 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectation that the Bank of Canada will not raise its overnight rate target between now and the end of 2026. At 3%, the market is pricing in a very low likelihood of a rate hike in this timeframe. The current level reflects the Bank of Canada's recent policy stance and economic conditions in Canada. Markets would reassess this probability based on changes in Canadian inflation data, labor market strength, or shifts in the central bank's forward guidance. The next scheduled Bank of Canada rate decision and monetary policy update will be a key catalyst for adjusting expectations, as any hawkish signals or economic data surprises could significantly alter the probability.

Key factors:
- Bank of Canada's current policy rate level and stated forward guidance as of May 2026
- Canadian inflation data relative to the 2% target and trend direction over the coming months
- Canadian employment and labor market indicators that might prompt monetary tightening
- Comparative monetary policy stance of other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which influences capital flows and exchange rates
- Scheduled Bank of Canada policy announcements and economic projections between now and December 2026

Contracts:
- Will the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate before 2027?: US Federal Reserve — 60¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 42%)
- Will Norges Bank raise its policy rate before 2027?: Norges Bank — 71¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 38%)
- Will the Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate target before 2027?: Reserve Bank of Australia — 60¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 10%)
- Will the Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate before 2027?: Bank of Canada — 44¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 6%)
- Will the Riksbank raise its policy rate before 2027?: Riksbank — 48¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 4%)
- Will the Bank of England raise the Bank Rate before 2027?: Bank of England — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raise the Official Cash Rate before 2027?: Reserve Bank of New Zealand — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Swiss National Bank raise the SNB policy rate before 2027?: Swiss National Bank — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.416Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "53% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cbratehike
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Bank%20of%20Canada%20raise%20its%20target%20for%20the%20overnight%20rate%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev