92% — Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97 million available lower berth days in 2026
Leader: Above 97.1 million at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 03:54:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market confidence that Carnival Corporation will report at least 97.1 million available lower berth days in 2026. Available berth capacity is a key metric for cruise operators, directly tied to fleet size, deployment schedules, and operational availability. The 93% probability suggests strong market expectation the company will meet or exceed this threshold. The assessment hinges on whether Carnival maintains expected fleet capacity throughout the year—including any ship deployments, dry-dock schedules, or unexpected outages—and whether management's guidance holds when 2026 full-year results are released. Contract pricing shows declining confidence at higher thresholds (74% for 97.3M, 43% for 97.4M), indicating uncertainty about capacity reaching the upper end. Resolution depends on Carnival's audited financial reporting disclosing actual berth-day figures, likely in early 2027.

Key factors:
- Carnival's current fleet size and any scheduled ship additions or retirements during 2026
- Planned dry-dock maintenance schedules and their impact on available capacity days
- Management guidance issued in recent earnings calls regarding 2026 capacity expectations
- Historical variance between Carnival's capacity projections and actual reported results
- Industry-wide demand pressures and competitive deployments that might affect utilization rates

Contracts:
- Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.1 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.1 million — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.2 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.2 million — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.3 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.3 million — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.4 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.4 million — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.5 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.5 million — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.6 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.6 million — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.7 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.7 million — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.8 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.8 million — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T03:20:50.875Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ccla
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Carnival%20Corporation%20report%20Above%2097%20million%20available%20lower%20berth%20days%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev