24% — CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-2.5)
Polymarket 24% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 17:37:20 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 27% probability that CD Cuenca will win by 3 or more goals against CA San Lorenzo de Almagro. The low probability suggests markets expect either a close result or a San Lorenzo victory. The assessment reflects relative team strength, home-field advantage (Cuenca plays in Ecuador at high altitude, a historical factor favoring local teams), and recent form. The match outcome will be determined by the final score on the scheduled game date. Key variables include whether Cuenca can leverage home conditions and whether San Lorenzo can neutralize Cuenca's attacking threat. Trading volume remains minimal across both venues ($0 in recent 24-hour activity on related contracts), indicating low market conviction and potentially wider spreads.

Key factors:
- CD Cuenca home-field advantage at high altitude in Quito (2,850m) historically favors Ecuadorian clubs in South American competition
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro's defensive record and goal differential in recent matches relative to Cuenca's scoring output
- Current head-to-head historical matchup record and performance in Copa Sudamericana or Copa CONMEBOL contexts
- Minimal trading volume ($0 24h) on this contract suggests low liquidity and potential for wide bid-ask spreads
- Kalshi and Polymarket pricing converges at 27-28%, reducing cross-venue arbitrage opportunity

Contracts:
- CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-2.5) — 12¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-2.5) — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5) — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 2.5 — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-1.5) — 15¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 3.5 — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 1.5 — 63¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 4.5 — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-markets-cd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CD%20Cuenca%20vs.%20CA%20San%20Lorenzo%20de%20Almagro%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20CD%20Cuenca%20(-2.5)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev