45% — CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football
Leader: CD Tolima at 45% · Polymarket 45% · 3 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 08:58:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 32% probability reflects market expectations for CD Tolima to win an upcoming match against Club Nacional de Football. The aggregated estimate masks a notable 14-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi traders pricing the outcome higher (44%) than Polymarket participants (30%), suggesting different confidence levels or information sets. The probability could shift based on team form, injury status, head-to-head history, and whether either squad has momentum from recent fixtures. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and official result. The relatively modest liquidity across related contracts indicates moderate trader interest, which could amplify price moves if significant news emerges about either team's composition or circumstances.

Key factors:
- 14-percentage-point divergence between Kalshi (44%) and Polymarket (30%) indicates disagreement on fundamental match outcome probability
- Aggregated probability of 32% implies market assigns Club Nacional de Football approximately 68% win probability or draw possibility, positioning Tolima as the underdog
- Low contract volumes ($74 24h volume on top contracts) suggest limited liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information or trader activity
- No disclosed team news, injuries, or recent form data is reflected in the published probability, creating potential for revision once match context emerges
- Match resolution date and venue conditions (altitude, weather, home-field advantage) would materially affect probability accuracy

Contracts:
- CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: CD Tolima — 45¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 72%)
- CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Draw (CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football) — 30¢ Polymarket $191 (weight 6%)
- CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Club Nacional de Football — 26¢ Polymarket $667 (weight 22%)

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CD%20Tolima%20vs.%20Club%20Nacional%20de%20Football
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev