49% — Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election
Kalshi 49% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 22:50:07 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the current market assessment that Eduardo Girão has a 33% chance of winning the Ceará gubernatorial election in 2026. Girão trails significantly behind Ciro Gomes, who is priced at 66% and represents the current frontrunner, while incumbent Elmano de Freitas shows 28% probability. The market appears to be pricing in Girão's name recognition as a federal senator but positioning him behind two more established figures in state politics. The probability could shift based on campaign dynamics, endorsement announcements, and polling releases leading up to election day. The election itself, scheduled for October 2026, will ultimately resolve this contract when results are confirmed.

Key factors:
- Ciro Gomes holds 66% contract price compared to Girão's 5¢, suggesting markets view him as the clear frontrunner
- Incumbent governor Elmano de Freitas at 28% indicates fragmentation among establishment candidates
- Eduardo Girão's federal senate profile versus limited recent gubernatorial track record in Ceará state politics
- Campaign financing disclosures and major endorsements typically influence state election markets 3-6 months before voting
- Public polling data from reputable firms will likely move these probabilities once released in Q3 2026

Contracts:
- Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?: Ciro Gomes — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?: Elmano de Freitas — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:49.804Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cearagov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Eduardo%20Gir%C3%A3o%20win%20the%202026%20Cear%C3%A1%20gubernatorial%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev