76% — Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102
Leader: Above 101 at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 19:23:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates market expectations that Chick-fil-A credit card spending will exceed $102 million in August 2026, with forecasters assessing roughly even odds. The market is pricing in baseline consumer spending patterns, seasonal summer traffic, and any macroeconomic headwinds affecting discretionary spending. August spending typically reflects mid-summer consumer behavior, including back-to-school preparation and vacation season activity. The key uncertainty centers on whether actual credit card transaction volumes will land above or below the $102 million threshold. Resolution will occur when Chick-fil-A releases or confirms August 2026 credit card spending data. The tight clustering of probabilities around 48-53% across the $101-104 range suggests forecasters view this outcome as highly uncertain, with limited conviction in either direction. Notable is the sharp drop to 36% at the $105 million level, indicating spending above that point is considered less likely by current market participants.

Key factors:
- Seasonal August traffic patterns and back-to-school consumer spending trends
- Macroeconomic conditions affecting discretionary fast-casual dining expenditures in summer 2026
- Historical Chick-fil-A credit card spend volatility and baseline monthly transaction volumes
- Credit card payment adoption rates relative to cash and other payment methods at Chick-fil-A locations
- Data release date and methodology for confirming August 2026 credit card spending figures

Contracts:
- Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 101 ?: Above 101 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102 ?: Above 102 — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 103 ?: Above 103 — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 104 ?: Above 104 — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 105 ?: Above 105 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 106 ?: Above 106 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 107 ?: Above 107 — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 111 ?: Above 111 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:50.969Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cfilcc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chick-fil-A%20Monthly%20Credit%20Card%20Spend%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20102
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev