50% — UEFA Champions League
Kalshi 50% · 2 contracts · $967K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:09:55 UTC

Why this matters:
The 37% probability reflects expectations that the UEFA Champions League winner will be one of the top-tier European clubs currently competing in the 2025-26 season. The aggregate probability is driven by distributed betting across multiple strong contenders: Bayern Munich at 37¢, Arsenal and PSG each at 27¢, and Atlético Madrid at 12¢ for outright winner, with Atlético also favored at 37¢ to reach the final. The market's aggregated view suggests meaningful uncertainty among several candidates rather than a dominant favorite. The probability could shift significantly based on knockout-stage matchups (Round of 16 onwards), injury developments to key players, or surprise performances by mid-tier clubs. Resolution occurs in late May 2026 when the final is played, at which point the actual winner eliminates all other possibilities. Current trading volume is concentrated on outright winner contracts, indicating active reassessment of contenders' prospects as the tournament progresses.

Key factors:
- Bayern Munich, Arsenal, and PSG each command 27-37¢ individually, suggesting no single team dominates market expectations and shifts between them could materially move the aggregate probability
- Atlético Madrid is valued significantly lower (12¢ for winner but 37¢ to reach final), indicating market uncertainty about their ability to convert final appearances into titles
- The 3 percentage-point gap between Polymarket (37%) and Kalshi (34%) reflects differences in contract count and weighting, with Polymarket offering 19 contracts versus Kalshi's 1, suggesting higher liquidity on Polymarket may better reflect marginal pricing
- Knockout-stage draw and matchups (determined in advance) directly determine which teams face each other, with favorable draws potentially shifting individual team probabilities substantially
- Twenty-four hour trading volumes exceed $30,000 on Bayern and $15,000+ on other top candidates, indicating active repricing and suggesting the market is processing new information regularly

Contracts:
- Will PSG win the Champions League Winner?: PSG — 57¢ Kalshi $625K (weight 65%)
- Will Arsenal win the Champions League Winner?: Arsenal — 43¢ Kalshi $342K (weight 35%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-30T19:20:12.869Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/champions-league
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=UEFA%20Champions%20League
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev