75% — Will Vincent Keymer be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026
Kalshi 75% · 15 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:48 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates an 82% chance that Vincent Keymer will appear in the top 10 of FIDE's standard rating list for June 2026. Keymer's current trajectory and recent performance results drive the high confidence level, with his rating position relatively stable near the threshold. The main factors affecting this probability are tournament results between now and the rating list's publication in June, which could either reinforce his top-10 status or push him lower if he underperforms or faces stiff competition from rising players. The June 2026 FIDE rating list publication will definitively resolve this contract, making recent tournament outcomes and rating trends the primary indicators of movement.

Key factors:
- Keymer's current FIDE rating and ranking relative to the 10th-place threshold
- Tournament results and rating changes for Keymer between May and June 2026
- Performance of other players competing for top-10 positions who could displace him
- Rating volatility of players near the top 10 who might move above or below Keymer
- The timing and results of major tournaments scheduled before the June rating list publication

Contracts:
- Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026?: Magnus Carlsen — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026?: Hikaru Nakamura — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026?: Fabiano Caruana — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026?: Nodirbek Abdusattorov — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Anish Giri be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026?: Anish Giri — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026?: Javokhir Sindarov — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026?: Nodirbek Abdusattorov — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Vincent Keymer be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026?: Vincent Keymer — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 7 more

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chessfideratingtop
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Vincent%20Keymer%20be%20rated%20top%2010%20on%20the%20FIDE%20World%20Top%20Players%20Standard%20Rating%20List%20in%20June%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev