87% — Will Vincent Keymer be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026 Kalshi 87% · 12 contracts · $78 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:07 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates an 82% chance that Vincent Keymer will appear in the top 10 of FIDE's standard rating list for June 2026. Keymer's current trajectory and recent performance results drive the high confidence level, with his rating position relatively stable near the threshold. The main factors affecting this probability are tournament results between now and the rating list's publication in June, which could either reinforce his top-10 status or push him lower if he underperforms or faces stiff competition from rising players. The June 2026 FIDE rating list publication will definitively resolve this contract, making recent tournament outcomes and rating trends the primary indicators of movement. Key factors: - Keymer's current FIDE rating and ranking relative to the 10th-place threshold - Tournament results and rating changes for Keymer between May and June 2026 - Performance of other players competing for top-10 positions who could displace him - Rating volatility of players near the top 10 who might move above or below Keymer - The timing and results of major tournaments scheduled before the June rating list publication Contracts: - Will Wei Yi be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in July 2026?: Wei Yi — 92¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 100%) - Will Arjun Erigaisi be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in July 2026?: Arjun Erigaisi — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in July 2026?: Fabiano Caruana — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in July 2026?: Hikaru Nakamura — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in July 2026?: Jan-Krzysztof Duda — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in July 2026?: Javokhir Sindarov — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in July 2026?: Magnus Carlsen — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in July 2026?: Nodirbek Abdusattorov — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.930Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chessfideratingtop Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Vincent%20Keymer%20be%20rated%20top%2010%20on%20the%20FIDE%20World%20Top%20Players%20Standard%20Rating%20List%20in%20June%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev