73% — Will Fabiano Caruana be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament
Kalshi 73% · 9 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects whether Fabiano Caruana, currently the fourth-ranked American player, will be selected to represent the United States at the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad. The 49% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about his inclusion, likely driven by competitive pressure from higher-ranked peers like Hikaru Nakamura (70% probability) and Hans Niemann (60%), along with historical team selection patterns that favor rating-adjusted performance over strict ranking. Caruana's selection hinges on the final rating list published before team announcements, his tournament performance over the next months, and FIDE's specific selection criteria. The U.S. Chess Federation typically announces its Olympiad squad roughly two months before the event begins. Caruana's recent tournament results and any rating fluctuations through mid-2026 will be primary factors in the federation's decision-making process.

Key factors:
- Caruana's FIDE rating relative to competing candidates as of the federation's rating cutoff date
- His tournament results and performance rating (actual strength demonstrated) in events held between now and team selection
- The number of available spots on the U.S. Open team and whether strong candidates are available to fill them
- Historical precedent: whether the federation prioritizes peak rating, recent form, or both in selection decisions
- Nakamura and Niemann's confirmed availability and participation in the final qualifying window

Contracts:
- Will Awonder Liang be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Awonder Liang — 95¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 85%)
- Will Leinier Domínguez Pérez be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Leinier Domínguez Pérez — 5¢ Kalshi $731 (weight 14%)
- Will John Donaldson be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: John Donaldson — 95¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 1%)
- Will Fabiano Caruana be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Fabiano Caruana — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Hikaru Nakamura be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Hikaru Nakamura — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Hans Niemann be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Hans Niemann — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Levon Aronian be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Levon Aronian — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Sam Shankland be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Sam Shankland — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.899Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chessolympiadusa
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Fabiano%20Caruana%20be%20selected%20to%20the%20United%20States%20team%20for%20the%2046th%20FIDE%20Chess%20Olympiad%20Open%20Tournament
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev