97% — Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 12%
Leader: Above -4% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 13 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:32:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above -4%?: Above -4% — 97¢ Kalshi $759 (weight 34%)
- Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above -2%?: Above -2% — 96¢ Kalshi $346 (weight 15%)
- Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 2%?: Above 2% — 95¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 2%)
- Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 0%?: Above 0% — 93¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 2%)
- Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 4%?: Above 4% — 93¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 1%)
- Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 6%?: Above 6% — 19¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 1%)
- Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 8%?: Above 8% — 18¢ Kalshi $202 (weight 9%)
- Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 12%?: Above 12% — 14¢ Kalshi $241 (weight 11%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.677Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chexports
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20exports%20YoY%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%2012%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev