74% — Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.4%
Leader: Above 4.2% at 74% · Kalshi 74% · 4 contracts · $17 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:16:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently expect China's year-over-year GDP growth for Q2 2026 to exceed 4.2% with 79% confidence, based on Kalshi trading activity. This reflects expectations about whether China's economy will maintain moderate growth momentum through mid-2026. The probability hinges on China's policy stimulus levels, global demand conditions, and domestic consumption patterns. The resolution depends on China's National Bureau of Statistics releasing the official Q2 2026 GDP figure, typically announced in mid-July. Contract pricing shows declining confidence in higher growth thresholds: only 28% probability for growth above 4.6%, suggesting traders expect growth in the 4.2-4.6% range rather than significantly higher. Key factors include recent property sector trends, monetary policy decisions, and export demand amid global economic conditions.

Key factors:
- China's official Q2 2026 YoY GDP growth rate will be compared directly to 4.2% threshold when released by the National Bureau of Statistics
- Recent quarterly growth trends through Q1 2026 and any stimulus or monetary policy adjustments announced in early 2026
- Global trade volumes and export demand conditions in H1 2026, particularly from developed economies
- Domestic consumption and property sector stability, which are primary growth drivers in recent years
- The gap between market expectations (4.2-4.6% range) and higher growth scenarios (above 4.8%) suggests uncertainty about policy effectiveness

Contracts:
- Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.2%?: Above 4.2% — 74¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 57%)
- Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.4%?: Above 4.4% — 50¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 43%)
- Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.8%?: Above 4.8% — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.6%?: Above 4.6% — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-16T01:20:51.432Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "74% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chgdpyoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20GDP%20growth%20rate%20YoY%20for%20Q2%202026%20be%20above%203.4%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev