26% — Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City
Kalshi 26% · 6 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 12:06:44 UTC

Why this matters:
This 23% probability reflects the implied likelihood that Sporting Kansas City defeats Chicago Fire FC in an upcoming MLS regular season match. The current price is informed by Kansas City's recent form, roster composition, and home-field advantage if applicable. Key drivers of this probability include Kansas City's historical performance against Chicago, recent injury reports, and current league standings. The probability would shift materially based on confirmed lineups released before kickoff, as roster changes significantly impact team performance. The match itself will provide definitive resolution once played.

Key factors:
- Kansas City's recent form and goal differential compared to Chicago Fire FC's current season performance
- Chicago Fire FC's home or away status and historical results in that venue against Kansas City
- Confirmed starting lineups and availability of key players, particularly Kansas City's attacking personnel
- Weather conditions and surface quality on match day if outdoor factors materially affect play style
- Kansas City's recent injury list and roster changes in the 7-10 days preceding the match

Contracts:
- Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Kansas City — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 68%)
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City — 33¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 21%)
- What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City — 11¢ Kalshi $430 (weight 9%)
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City — 11¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 2%)
- Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Patrick Mahomes — 88¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 1%)
- Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Justin Fields — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T11:20:51.127Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chicago-fire-fc-vs-sporting-kansas-city
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Chicago%20Fire%20FC%20vs.%20Sporting%20Kansas%20City
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev