23% — Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City - More Markets
Kalshi 23% · 6 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 21:41:04 UTC

Why this matters:
This 31% probability represents the market's assessment that Chicago Fire FC will defeat Sporting Kansas City in their upcoming match. The current level reflects Chicago's status as a moderate underdog, with Kansas City historically being the stronger team in head-to-head matchups. Key drivers of movement would be roster changes, recent team performance, injuries to key players, or home-field advantage considerations. The actual match result will definitively resolve this contract when the game concludes. Current probability may shift based on team news released in the days leading up to kickoff, as well as any changes to starting lineups or tactical adjustments announced by either club.

Key factors:
- Chicago Fire FC's win-loss record and goal differential in the current MLS season compared to Sporting Kansas City's record
- Injury status of key players for both teams, particularly attacking and defensive contributors
- Head-to-head historical performance between the two clubs in recent seasons
- Whether the match is played at Chicago's or Kansas City's home stadium
- Recent form and momentum of both teams in their last 5-10 matches prior to kickoff

Contracts:
- Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Kansas City — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 64%)
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City — 34¢ Kalshi $888 (weight 23%)
- What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City — 10¢ Kalshi $438 (weight 11%)
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City — 13¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 2%)
- Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Patrick Mahomes — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Justin Fields — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T21:20:50.539Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chicago-fire-fc-vs-sporting-kansas-city-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Chicago%20Fire%20FC%20vs.%20Sporting%20Kansas%20City%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev